News
Flat-panel revenues look flat after 8 years of growth, OLED rising
July 8, 2009
AUSTIN, Texas — After rising at a compound annual growth rate of 20 percent from 2000 to 2008, flat-panel display, or FPD, sales revenues may rise only 1 percent each year from 2008 to 2016, according to the latest results in the DisplaySearch Quarterly Worldwide FPD Forecast Report.
The Q2 '09 forecast indicates FPD revenues will decline 20 percent from 2008 to 2009, as slack demand affects end-product markets in developed countries. Despite this, the outlook for 2010 is more positive, with an annual revenue growth of 13 percent in 2010.
"Despite the overall flat outlook for FPDs, there are some bright spots in the long-term for flat-panel displays," said David Barnes, vice president of Strategic Analysis. "Hot applications such as OLED TV, eBook, mini-note PC (netbooks), digital picture frames and public displays are all driving demand. We expect electrophoretic and OLED technologies will experience more growth than other display technologies will over the long term."
Flat-panel revenue for the five FPD applications will provide strong growth opportunities for display manufacturers, as listed in Table 1. The Quarterly Worldwide FPD Forecast Report forecasts OLED revenues from TV applications will increase at a CAGR of 140 percent from 2008 to 2016. Demand for electronic books will lift revenue of electrophoretic and similar display technologies at a 49-percent CAGR. Several technologies, TFT LCD in particular, support public display applications such as out-of-home advertising, which is forecast to grow 20 percent a year — reaching almost $3 billion in 2016. Mini-notes have become a hot new application, and DisplaySearch expects panel revenue for such products will rise 15 percent per year to more than $2 billion in 2016. Digital picture frames became a hot market in 2007, and this application may still support revenue growth of 11 percent per year.
Table 1: Top Five FPD Applications by Revenue Growth, (US$ millions)
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Worldwide FPD Forecast Report
From a technology standpoint, DisplaySearch research foresees an end to CRT shipments to desktop monitor makers this year. Some CRT monitor business may survive in emerging markets, but DisplaySearch sees little demand for such products after 2009. CRT revenues from TV applications will decline 34 percent each year from 2008 to 2016 as the price-performance of LCD and OLED TV sets improve.
Among FPD technologies, DisplaySearch forecasts panel revenues from LCD TV sets will not grow substantially from 2008 to 2016. Price declines and commodity demand for sets smaller than 50-inches will constrain sales, even though LCD TV will remain the most significant application for panel makers. Revenue for LCD and other technologies for mobile phone applications will become the second largest market, as shown in Table 2, which is forecast to grow 6 percent per year to more than $20 billion in 2016. Conventional notebook PC displays will become a larger market than desktop displays by 2015, with panel revenue for conventional notebooks expected to rise 3 percent per year to almost $15 billion in 2016. Panel revenue for desktop monitor and plasma TV applications may decline 6 percent and 7 percent a year, respectively, as these applications are replaced by other PC and TV products.
Table 2: Top Five FPD Applications by Annual Revenue (US$ millions)
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Worldwide FPD Forecast Report
Related Media
Subscribe
Get the latest news and resources from Digital Signage Today.
Recent Posts
PPDS partners with FVC in Middle East
California real estate company taps Red Dot Digital Media for interactive video wall
Hypervsn, Firefly, Flo Advertising unveil 3D holographic experience truck
Almo Pro AV’s Josh Taylor, Amanda Mectuchen named to influencer class
Legrand | AV debuts residential AV Innovations at industry expo
